Things always happen in threes

We are 3 million to be looking for a job in France!

No, I don't write unemployed as many don't receive unemployment payments. But this is an historical rate.

In fact we are much more as these 3 million are metropolitan, have not worked for a month, are seeking a permanent full-time job, are immediately available and are considered "active" in their research. For example, you worked 3 hours for a shop inventory of a store last month, you're no more in category A so you do not appear in statistics. Another exemple: you can be registered at the employment agency while you are already in post. You do not appear in the statistics profile either. I do not know where you are when you are a successful podcaster winning money in publishing videos on the Internet?

Finally, we can estimate that nearly 5 million persons are seeking a job in France.
Google provides the public given (ILO estimate I think) with a 10% unemployment rate. The same than in 1993, and it may not come back better for a while.


1 - The crisis
You know, since 2008, it is the crisis [because of subprimes and there is a banks we discovered at that time: Goldman Sachs]: economy is bad, finances are falling, households consume less, production decline, so economy is bad...
This is not a problem for big firms to pay record dividends but this seems not to be about economy...

As it's a hard time for everyone prices will rise to compensate the falling consumption, so consumption will fall.


2 - Austerity
This week Challenges magazine is about the risks of austerity and is quoting excerpts from three imminent books:
"History shows that austerity has almost never worked, and the theory explains why we should not be surprised. Recessions are caused by a lack of demand: aggregated demand is less than what the economy is able to produce.''
Joseph STIGLITZ (2011 Nobel Laureate): Le prix de l'inégalité, LLL


3 - The change is for when?
The new French President has been elected, among other things, to renegotiate EU treaties forcing austerity and because his predecessor pushed the rigor rather than recovery.
He even appointed a "Minister for Produce Recovery" as a proof of his vision in the recovery.

Except that the treaties has not been renegotiated, the prices are going crazy (fuel, gas, electricity etc..) and the government goes into rigor. We will have to wait for a recovery, maybe in 4 years when it would be a question for his reelection...
This brings me to the second book quoted in the magazine:
"[...] if the economy is deeply depressed and if interest rates are already near zero, there is no possible compensation for the effect of the spending cuts, which then increases depression-and it lowers revenues, offsetting at least part of the deficit reduction sought.''
Paul KRUGMAN (2008 Nobel Laureate): Sortez-nous de cette crise... MAINTENANT !, Flammarion.

The reason for this austerity is simple: to reassure the markets!


4 – The markets
We must reassure banks that we won't spend the money they lend us [not to us, finally, to the State]. Except that we could do what we want with the money we borrow, couldn't we? The important is to refund it, isn't it? And it's easier to refund it when we can make it grow!
 
But we have to get touch, not to spend on other ideas than helping enterprises (in which banks have money) to show to these banks we're clean. This is not the way to raise economy so this money may not come back... so we may end in bankrupt. After that, who will take the opportunity tu buy states' properties? Banks!! They will be the onlye one with the possibilites (and without spending money as they will take properties to end up our debts)!

Moreover you will notice that the states are financing the European Central Bank which lands to banks that can lend to the states. Well, banks will lend to states with an higher rate than they borrow from the ECB... which is funded by the states.
So the taxes we pay to the State comes in a common fund that is available to private firms which lend to the State winning a gain (paid from our taxes...)...

But who leads the ECB which sets up this system? Oh yes, a former Goldman Sachs banker!
And who lead the states which allow themselves to be robbed? Greece and Italy were led by former Goldman Sachs bankers (who were not elected to their positions, but designated), the U.S. administration relies on advisors from Goldman Sachs...


5 - And tomorrow?
Here is the third quote from the Challenges magazine:
"The absurd spiral in which Europe is embroiled became the following: reduce deficits, but at the risk of breaking growth, then fill the shortfall due to the recession by new austerity measures. From 1930 to 1932 Chancellor Bruning, wanting to reassure the markets about the credibility of Germany, had pursued a policy of rigor like our, which made the unemployment rate climb to stratospheric levels greater than 25 % of the population.
This figure is the same in 2012 Greece and Spain. In Germany, this policy had lead to the radicalization of political life and to the Hitler's lead in 1933, less than four years after the start of the crisis... In Greeck elections of May 2012, the Golden Dawn nazi party will enter Parliament.''
Daniel COHEN (Professor of Economics): Homo economicus, prophète (égaré) des temps nouveaux, Albin Michel.

The crisis had inspired austerity, which led to Hitler, which led to the war.
History gives us a lesson. If the common mortals seek to avoid war, by refusing austerity, I guess that the actual austerity is a real desire to go on war.
As an urban planner I agree that the war can refresh the face of the city but the solution seems radical, there must be another reason.
Well, maybe because Goldman Sachs has interests in the industry of armament?


6 - A B Plan
One last time, I take an excerpt from the magazine:
"[...] An expansion of public spending can cause a very concrete expansion of production creating jobs occupied by people who without it would have been unemployed. One household, when it spends more than it wins, can not change the macroeconomy. A national government can do. And GDP growth can be several times higher than the amount the state spends.''
Joseph STIGLITZ: opus cited


Beautiful conclusion, ins't it?
.